ÃÛÌÒ´«Ã½

BUFFALO, N.Y. - As a result of the very public feud between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump, the world’s richest person has suggested that he would create a new political party to give more Americans a voice in political decision-making. The concept of a major third party would shake up the traditional United States’ two-party system and ideologies.

Could this really happen? Could a third party emerge and completely rearrange the United States’ political dynamics?

Collin Anderson, PhD, clinical assistant professor of political science in the ÃÛÌÒ´«Ã½ College of Arts and Sciences, says that it would be extremely difficult for a new party to form. He also states that even if creating a new party is not successful, Musk still has several ways where he can impact U.S. elections.

Below, Anderson answers some questions about the Musk’s immediate and possible future political involvement.

Do you think Elon Musk could pull this off? Could he be successful in creating a new third party?

“It would be extremely unlikely for a new major party to form. The structure of the U.S. political system tends towards two major effective parties, and the structure would need to be changed in order to give more parties a real chance. In political science, this is called Duverger’s law. First-past-the-post systems with single member districts tend toward two major parties. One of the major parties would need to essentially collapse in order for Musk’s new party to have any real chance.”

Is Musk’s brand strong enough to inspire a massive movement?

“Musk’s brand is probably too damaged right now to stand on his own. He might pull some of the more tech-bro, libertarian types away from the Republican Party, but I couldn’t see a mass exodus from either main party. He would need to undergo some serious image rehabilitation with Democrats, especially young Dems. Democrats rightfully blame Musk for helping Trump get elected in the first place. That being said, if it was politically expedient for one of the parties to support Musk’s party, I could see one of the major parties supporting him as a spoiler candidate against the other.”

Could you envision people leaving the MAGA movement to join Musk’s proposed new party?

“There’s no heir apparent, so once Trump is out of politics it becomes much more likely that the MAGA/Republican base will fracture. That’s when Musk can make his move.”

Do you think all of this talk about creating a new major party is just that … all talk and no action? 

“I don’t think it’s necessarily all talk. I do think Musk is going to try, I just don't think it will be overwhelmingly successful. It should probably be a concern for Republicans either way though. Musk has a lot of resources that he can use against them, even if his party doesn't pan out.”